The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the 11th time in a row but sharply lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal, as against earlier projection of 7.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo on interest rate despite July-September quarter GDP growth falling to 7-quarter low of 5.4 per cent, as against its own projection of 7 per cent.
Gold prices are expected to maintain their upward momentum though some consolidation could set in ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on September 17, analysts said. Traders will focus on the trade inflation data to gauge the impact of tariffs, inflation numbers from major economies including UK and Euro zone, along with monetary policy meetings of Bank of England and Bank of Japan which will provide more guidance for bullion prices, they added.
'If there is an RBI majority in the committee, there is no question of a veto.'
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 3.88 per cent in March, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by a sharp rise in crude petroleum, natural gas, and manufactured items amidst the West Asia crisis.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed new measures to combat financial fraud in digital payments, including lagged credit for authorised push payments and a 'kill switch' for users to disable all digital transactions.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
India's main inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is set for another major update, even though it has been in its current form for only about 15 years.
While the economy will wait for a rate cut in December, the banking industry should be happy with the wave of liberalisation -- a big push for growth in bank credit, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in June, it had trimmed the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent.
Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal.
'In investing, poor sentiment is always a good vintage to build a portfolio.'
Ashok Lahiri, a distinguished economist with experience in government, the private sector, and electoral politics, has been appointed as the new Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog, tasked with strengthening India's reform trajectory and policy-making.
Maharashtra's Governor and Chief Minister, along with other state leaders, paid tribute to Dr. B.R. Ambedkar on his 135th birth anniversary, recognising his profound impact on social justice, equality, and the Indian Constitution.
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Restoring weighted tax deductions and adopting a petty patents regime can foster firm-level innovative activity critical for competitiveness, points out Nagesh Kumar.
Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The RBI's monetary policy committee is expected cut benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in its policy review meeting next month to push growth, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Thursday. "We expect the headline inflation in FY25 to cool off to 4.7 per cent. Monetary easing may be limited to 75 bps in FY26," Ind-Ra Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Devendra Kumar Pant said.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid a weak trend in global stock markets.
The recent correction suggests that while precious metals hedge geopolitical tension and inflation, they are not immune to sharp short-term corrections and profit-booking.
Inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends would dictate sentiment in the stock market this week, according to analysts.
The country's primary capital markets delivered a robust performance in FY26, emerging as a global leader in initial public offerings (IPOs) despite an uncertain environment, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
Strong domestic growth will continue to draw foreign investment into the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Tuesday. He said this was reflected in recent free trade agreements and investment commitments by large technology companies.
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
'The March correction was clearly due to the war and with prospects of that coming to a conclusion, there is a natural rally.'
For the time being, the RBI is done with the cuts. A cut in October, which many are still predicting, is not certain. Of course, if growth nosedives, the script will be different, expects Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
WPI inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global cues would dictate trends in the stock market this week, analysts said.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in April, it had also trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent.
Business confidence in India Inc rose to a five-quarter high in December quarter of FY26, amid further reform expectations and steady domestic demand, a survey by industry body Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) showed. The CII Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose for the third consecutive quarter to 66.5 in the December quarter from 66 in the preceding September quarter.
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
Former World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu on Thursday said the US economic policy towards India has taken an unfortunate turn, noting that President Donald Trump's harsh stance against New Delhi appears baffling. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods from August 1, amid signs of a stalemate in the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the two countries.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets are expected to track Q3 corporate earnings from several blue-chip firms, including TCS and Infosys, while inflation data and global trends would also dictate investors' sentiment, analysts said.
'When there is such an elaborate and a strong process, one would have expected anyone to either place the issues so that they can be addressed or go to the regulator and probably tell them rather than creating a kind of uncertainty for the stakeholders.
Lenders are actively monitoring gold price volatility, prompting them to ask borrowers for additional gold collateral or partial principal repayment when loan-to-value (LTV) thresholds are breached, particularly for loans disbursed in February.
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday proposed to allow banks to lend to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with certain prudential safeguards to deepen the financing pool for the real estate sector.
Almost a decade after India shifted to a formal inflation-targeting regime under the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a high-level panel of economists said that the flexible inflation targeting has largely worked in keeping it under control and no major revamp is required.
